Climate scientists have warned that nearly one in every four matches at the 2026 FIFA World Cup could be played under dangerously hot conditions, with climate change significantly increasing the risk of extreme heat across North America since the United States last hosted the tournament in 1994.
The warning was issued on Thursday by World Weather Attribution (WWA), a network of climate scientists that examined projected weather conditions for the expanded 48-team tournament scheduled to take place between June 11 and July 19 across 16 stadiums in the United States, Canada and Mexico.
According to the researchers, 26 out of the 104 World Cup matches could be played in conditions reaching at least 26 degrees Celsius Wet Bulb Globe Temperature (WBGT), a heat index that combines temperature, humidity, wind and sun exposure to measure how effectively the human body can cool itself. At that threshold, the global footballers’ union, FIFPRO, recommends mandatory cooling breaks because of the growing risk of heat strain on players.
“Players and fans face a much higher risk of grueling heat and humidity at the 2026 World Cup compared to the 1994 tournament on the same continent,” WWA said in a statement.
FIFA has already responded to growing concerns over extreme temperatures by mandating cooling breaks during each half of matches throughout the tournament. However, the latest analysis suggests the risks may be more severe than initially anticipated. Researchers said five matches are expected to face conditions of 28C WBGT or higher — a level FIFPRO considers dangerous enough to warrant delays or postponements until temperatures become safer.
The report noted that while 17 of the potentially high-risk games will be staged in stadiums equipped with cooling systems, several others will be played in venues without air conditioning. Only three of the 16 World Cup stadiums — located in Dallas, Houston and Atlanta — have full air-conditioning systems installed.
WWA co-founder and climate science professor at Imperial College London, Friederike Otto, warned that the dangers extend beyond players on the pitch to thousands of supporters expected to gather in stadiums and public viewing areas.
“It’s dangerous for players, but of course there are also the fans who might gather outdoors and they are at even more risk because they will not be taken care of by a lot of medical doctors,” Otto said.
Researchers also raised concerns about the tournament final scheduled for July 19 at MetLife Stadium in New Jersey. The study estimates the showpiece match has a one-in-eight chance of being played under 26C WBGT conditions and a 2.7 percent probability of reaching the more dangerous 28C level.
“That the World Cup Final itself — one of the biggest sporting occasions on the planet — faces a non-insignificant risk of being played in ‘cancellation-level’ heat should be a wake-up call for FIFA and fans,” Otto added.
