The latest annual United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) Emissions Gap Report delivers a stark verdict: the world has missed the window to guarantee staying within the 1.5 °C global-warming ceiling and is now locked into a path of at least temporary overshoot.
According to the report, even with full implementation of current national climate pledges, global warming is projected to reach between 2.3 °C and 2.5 °C this century. Under existing policy settings the temperature rise could stand at 2.8 °C or higher — a scenario described as “climate breakdown” by analysts.
Lead author Anne Olhoff and her team emphasise that while deeper and faster emissions cuts could delay the overshoot, “we can no longer totally avoid it”.
The report notes that global CO₂-equivalent emissions reached an estimated 57.7 Gt in 2024, reflecting a 2.3 % rise from the previous year and underlining a return to high growth after a brief dip in recent years.
The gap between where global emissions are headed and where they must be to align with the 1.5 °C goal remains vast — roughly 23 billion tonnes of CO₂-equivalent per year by 2035 if the 1.5 °C target is to remain plausible.
In his assessment, António Guterres, United Nations Secretary-General, characterised the situation as “inevitable”— rejecting the notion that the Paris target remains intact, instead saying that every year of delay reduces the chances of staying within a liveable climate.
The report also outlines that while recent national climate plans (NDCs) show incremental improvements, they fail to shift the needle significantly. The authors argue that what is now required is a “quantum leap in ambition” rather than incremental progress.
Urgent Recommendations
UNEP has urged countries around the world to take immediate and decisive action to address the widening emissions gap. The agency stressed that global greenhouse gas emissions must peak and begin a sustained decline as soon as possible, warning that every year of delay further reduces the chances of keeping temperature rise within safe limits.
The agency also called for countries to raise their ambition levels in the next round of national climate commitments, particularly the 2030 and 2035 plans. The report emphasized that these updated pledges must be matched by swift and large-scale deployment of clean energy technologies, investments in nature-based solutions, and a transformation of industrial practices to drastically cut emissions.
Equally critical, the agency highlighted the need to bridge the “implementation gap”—the growing divide between what nations have promised and what they are actually delivering. It urged governments to back up their pledges with credible, time-bound policies, measurable targets, and sufficient financing, ensuring that commitments translate into real-world progress rather than political statements.
Implications for Africa
For Africa, the UN report paints a picture of both urgent risk and potential opportunity. Although the continent contributes the least to global greenhouse gas emissions, it remains one of the most vulnerable regions to the devastating effects of climate change. Rising temperatures, prolonged droughts, erratic rainfall, floods, and the rapid degradation of ecosystems are already taking a heavy toll on communities, agriculture, and infrastructure.
The report warns that continued delays in global climate action will come at a steep cost for African nations. As extreme weather events intensify, governments are likely to face mounting financial pressures from adaptation needs, disaster recovery, and infrastructure repairs. This, UNEP cautions, could lead to higher debt burdens and a growing risk of stranded assets, particularly in economies that depend heavily on fossil fuels and climate-sensitive sectors like agriculture.
At the same time, the report highlights opportunities for Africa to take the lead in building a low-carbon future. Investments in renewable energy, sustainable farming, and green industrial development could not only strengthen resilience but also position the continent as a hub for climate innovation and sustainable growth—if supported by global financing and technology transfer.
A Critical Moment Ahead
With the upcoming COP30 climate summit scheduled in Brazil this November, the timing of this report is strategic. Delegates will enter talks under the shadow of the emissions gap — forced to contend not just with ambition but with urgency and credibility. The question is no longer whether the 1.5 °C threshold will be breached, but how high the overshoot will be and how quickly the world can stabilise from there.
As the report concludes, “We are running out of time.” With the current trajectory, the world is entering a new chapter in climate risk—where the lessons of delay become irreversible.
